Thursday, April 2, 2015

IWantISK must be doing RMT

The operator posted his reply against the allegations of RMT. Of course he didn't post anything of proof, just tried to ad hominem discredit the accuser. While doing so, he casually dropped that they make 200B a day from gambling.

I don't need explicit proof that this or that perpeetum mobile design is useless, or that this or that Jita ISK doubler is a scammer to know it is. Similarly I don't need any proof that this or that ISK-gambling site is RMT-ing, but our little ISK seller provided it.

200B a day is 6T a month. This an unimaginable number to an ordinary player who wants SRP for a cruiser. But we have a simple point of reference: despite directly against the Goon canon, renting was introduced to the CFC. Their rules outline the pricing and they even list system costs. Depending on vacancies, the CFC gets 200-300B income from PBLRD. They have 90 systems, so that's about 2.5-3.5B/system. NA. has 441 systems, XWX has 336, B0T has 123. All together about 1000 systems, translating to 2.5-3.5T/month income for all renting in EVE. IWantISK claims to have twice as much and it's in line of what Somer Blink made before they were shut down ... for RMT-ing.

You simply can't do anything with that kind of ISK without creating huge waves and everyone talking about you. No, killing one titan doesn't do it, that's just 1/60 of the monthly income. They could reimburse a B-R every second month. They clearly don't. What are they doing with all these pixel money? Do you really believe that they created that professional site and work around the clock to manage bets and rewards just to watch their pixel wallet grow?

The only way to spend that money without crushing coalitions is RMT. Their money is distributed between thousands of little buyers, this is why we see no effect. Noisy reported $11/B black market price, so they make $66K/month before expenses. Obviously their 6T can't come from legitimate gamblers, there are simply not enough idiots with that money, it comes from botters who "lose" their income on the site and get paid in cash for it. Of course I don't question that a couple percents of their ISK really come from gambling idiots.

Gambling is loved by RMT-ers, because it naturally includes large transactions without in-game reason. Some guy I've never met sends me 10B for nothing? Obvious RMT. Gambling site sends me 10B? I won!

CCP should implement an in-client, zero-sum (the house takes nothing) gambling feature, to serve the gamble-addict players, while outcompeting any third-party gambling sites (no one can go zero-sum as they have site-building and operational costs). After the players with their transactions leave the third-party sites, the remaining traffic can be analyzed and the individual RMT sellers and buyers identified and banned.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

The mandate

Many people think that permanent seat has no point in CSM anymore, as it comes only with a free trip to Iceland, instead of attending via video. Since they also think that I don't know anything about anything, let's quote someone who knows everything about everything according to these commenters:
"This year, I am again running for the Chairmanship. The title has tremendous value, even though it officially has no power at all - a concept which you will immediately understand if you have any political intelligence. Last year, I received more votes than any other candidate in the entire history of the CSM. This year, I want more than that - I want a mandate."
And he got it. And lost it, by being himself. But that's not the point. The point is that CCP will listen much more to a guy who has lot of voters than the one who just got in.

On CSM 7, The Mittani got 10058 votes out of 59109. So 17% of the voters stood behind him.

CSM 10, permanent seat election, Round beginning - 3 candidates remain
- 9080 "Sugar Kyle"
- 6275 "Sion Kumitomo"
- 6228 "Manfred Sideous"
36983 votes were cast, so she got 25% of the votes. That's unmatched in the history of EVE. That's the mandate The Mittani was looking for.

What can I say? You earned it Sugar, enjoy!

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

If there were no wardecs, what could a PvE corp do?

Non-wardeccable PvE corps are a long-standing idea of mine. Now let's see how their existence would change highsec moneymaking activities.
  • Belt mining: newbies/casuals only. They would benefit from a shared corp Orca and Freighter. Any established multibox miner has his own Orca and Freighter as he can't risk that the Orca isn't online when he wants to mine.
  • Ice mining: yes. As ice is limited, ganking/bumping competition and protecting own ships provides much better income, so ice miner corps would be a thing. However this means that the corp is mostly exists for (illegal) PvP.
  • Mission mining: now yes, soon no, because CCP is planning on-grid boosting and that would remove the Orca from the mining missioners. Even if that doesn't kill mission mining, it'll make it totally solo.
  • Contract hauling: yes. Red Frog and such could skip double-contracting. Gankers could also be bribed to leave them alone with no need for list of pilots: set corp blue, don't shoot blue ships.
  • Hauling for himself (including distribution missions): no. This is as solo as it could be.
  • Security missioning: only for newbies. Any established missioner is fine by himself, there is no point for sharing.
  • Incursions: yes. Incursion communities could skip the administration by forming corps.
  • Trading: no. Since trading includes no undocking, wardecs are already irrelevant, yet no trading corps formed.
  • PI: no. There is no option to interact with the planetary colony of another player. POCOs must be in a wardeccable corp anyway.
  • Exploration: no. It's as solo activity as possible.
Oops. Besides help for communities that are already operating via channels, non-deccable corps would not affect any kind of moneymaking activities. So such corps would only affect the life of newbies/very casuals who need help to do activities done solo by veterans. It would also allow a social space for solo players.

The point is that introducing such corps would not affect anything ISK-wise, it would be a vanity/social thing for the game, no harm would be done.

Monday, March 30, 2015

CSM 10 election analysis

Like last year, I grabbed the voting results to check for cross-supports. The method was simple: if a voter put candidate A to the first position, B to the second, and so on, than I assigned 54.5% vote for A, 24.8 for B, 11.3 for C, each is 1/2.2 of the previous. This was a fitted number, which provided the best approximation of the real STV results. It approximated:
2772 Sion Kumitomo
2098 Sugar Kyle
1616 Manfred Sideous
1545 corbexx
1537 Endie
1376 corebloodbrothers
1364 Chance Ravinne
1347 Steve Ronuken
1221 Sort Dragon
1141 Mike Azariah
1084 Cagali Cagali
1031 Gorga
1002 Thoric Frosthammer
779 Bam Stroker
732 Jayne Fillon
Only Jayne Fillon was not predicted as winner. This is much better than looking at just the first vote (giving 100% to A), which missed two winners, including Endie, who actually passed the quota after Sion and Sugar. I used these for calculating cross-vote supports. For the example case, B has 45% support from A (1/2.2), while A has 100% support from B. So the A-B cross-votes mean how much the voters of A supported B too.

However we must consider low-vote candidates, since CCP in its infinite wisdom allowed every bored troll to run. Imagine a troll who only appeared on one ballot (his own), placing him first and Sugar second. This means 45% cross-vote. However the cross-vote table is not symmetric, while the value in his row, Sugar's column is indeed 45%, the value in the row of Sugar, his column is 0.05%, since the 100% support from this one vote is divided by the 2K votes of Sugar. So in creation of groups I only cared about the rows of the winners and those losers who were eliminated with more than 1000 votes. This does not mean complete removal of the other candidates, as reasonable cross-support can come from them, just see Tora's "group".

Let's see the table!

Yes, having 75 candidates is bad. Let's remove all the candidates who didn't have 1000 votes at elimination and couldn't even get 6%!!! cross-support from one who had:

Much better! The first group had 6 winners: Chance Ravinne, Mike Azariah, Sugar Kyle, corbexx, Steve Ronuken and Jayne Fillon. This means that the voters considered these people similar. 3 "below 1000" losers got into this group, getting some (but clearly not enough) support from the winners. This explains my surprise that only 3 "good" candidates got in. The supporters of Sugar-Steve-Mike disagreed with me about who else is "good". They valued the silly videos of Chance Ravinne and didn't believe me that anyone who signed the Document of Shame is likely a Goon spy. OK, the evens of Fanfest proved me right pretty clearly.

Let's see the next group, centered on the "over 1000" loser Tora Bushido. His voters supported the below-1000 Sabriz, who also gave him lot of support: before the round where Sabriz was eliminated, Tora had 714 votes, but 838 after. The Tora was the only "above-1000" whose voters supported corebloodbrothers. His voters supported no one else and he received support only from Tora and some tiny ones. He also "won" the "most vasted votes" competition, with 41% (last column). His inability to form a "party" and his signature on the Document of Shame are enough for every Provi voters to think about finding a new representative.

The next group is around winner Cagali Cagali, featuring above-1000 Migui X`hyrrn and below-1000 June Ting. Strong cross-support, sporadic outside support to/from the "good" group. This is how a good political party looks like.

The next group is around above-1000 Lorelei Ierendi. While the cross-supports aren't as strong as in the Cagali party, it's OK. Or would be OK if they'd get a bit more votes. Their combined #1 votes are 1600, which is under the quota. Since they had no connection to other group they couldn't receive help from candidates eliminated before Lorelei, nor help anyone OK being elected after he was eliminated.

Now comes the Nullsec "Elite PvP" group: above-1000 UAxDEATH, winners Gorga, Sort Dragon, Manfred Sideous and below-1000 Bobmon. Very strong cross-support, another well-functioning party.

Then comes the somewhat overlapping CFC party, with winners Manfred Sideous, Thoric Frosthammer, Endie and Sion, above-1000 Bam Stroker and below-1000 Bobmon and Xander Phoena. Strong cross-support all over the place. I don't really see what was the gain for Manfred for the cooperation, probably the Goons promised him a permanent seat, which hilariously backfired, leading to the first time since I can remember that Goons didn't get the top position of the CSM.

The last group is the Xenuria-party, named after the above-1000 mastertroll and the lower tier troll Gorski Car. Too bad that he didn't think about trolling Goons by telling his voters to place an anti-ganking candidate after him.

Finally, let's see the permanent seat support. In this election the quota is so high that no one can pass it till the last round when three candidates enter, this time Sugar, Sion and Manfred. If a ballot had any of them, even if just at the last position, it provided a full vote to that candidate (the first mentioned if more than one was listed). So below I separated the ballots based on nothing but their #1 candidate.
These candidates gave more than 20% support to Sugar for permanent seat. No wonder that she had 9080 votes on the final round.

As you can see, much less candidates supported Manfred than Sugar, he had 6228 votes in the last round, getting #2 position only by spillover votes from Sugar. It's funny that Endie got on the 20%+ list, so 1/5 of the people who put Endie to the first place of their ballot preferred Manfred over Sion for permanent seat.

The Sion supporter list is even smaller. Besides two trolls, only official CFC candidates channeled more than 20% of their votes to Sion for permanent seat, providing him 6275 votes that weren't enough to win.

These candidates failed to explain their voters the importance of permanent seat, not directing them to put at least one of the candidates with chance to the end of their ballot. 16K votes were wasted, having no say in the permanent seat votes. These voters could elect any permanent seat holder they want.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Weekend minipost: CSM trolls

Another little bit for the few weekend readers:

Round beginning - 75 candidates remain
36983 votes, 2466 quota
Initial talley:
355 "Sabriz Adoudel"
329 "Alyxportur"
306 "Xander Phoena"
285 "NSA Bivas"
281 "Angrod Losshelin"
266 "Ariete"
263 "Aeon Boirelle"
244 "PsychoBitch"
188 "Janwa Resh"
183 "Purinpu"
173 "Vic Jefferson"
171 "Psianh Auvyander"
157 "Borat Guereen"
155 "Klapen"
143 "Lyonic"
142 "Soelent"
131 "Leelo dallasmultipas"
127 "Harry Saq"
122 "Jenshae Chiroptera"
116 "Kasken"
116 "Cycule"
109 "DomanarK"
106 "Suzy RC Mudstone"
104 "Radu Lupescu"
101 "Nervon"
94 "Ryan Farmern"
91 "Decimat Draconia"
89 "Crante"
86 "My name isJeff"
80 "Harek"
73 "Bane Cortex"
67 "Malis Caretia"
66 "Roban Crause"
63 "Dadrom"
61 "Erweb Maken"
58 "KaziKai"
57 "Aradus Gunnell"
43 "Miralissa Issa"
42 "Aiwha"
38 "CatanaFleet Red"
36 "commander aze"
31 "Bait'er De'Outlier"
28 "Michael Laloush"
26 "Soul Crusher"
26 "Perosteck Neuchatel"
16 "Justin Amalastoner"
12 "Raiealatar"

These candidates got less than 1% of the votes as #1. CCP did a huge mistake removing every barriers of entry. These hopeless candidates forced those who wanted to be informed voters to dig trough awful lot of pages. People could see this mess and decide that it doesn't worth their time. I wouldn't be surprised if half of these candidates were Goon alts sent for this very purpose.

Seriously, what was CCP thinking? What benefit they expected from this?

There must be a pre-voting system that demands 300 accounts to support a candidate. To prevent trolling, such support can't be unmade: once you gave your support to a candidate, he becomes your fixed #1 vote on the election. You can of course set the remaining 13, and this fix is removed if he don't make it to the ballot.

PS: Goons being Goons.
Finally a glorious battle between MoA and the finest fleet of SMA.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Weekend minipost: damn you lazies!

The CSM10 voting results are out. I will do a real analysis, now in this minipost some quick notes. The first and above all, I copy here some lines from the last elimination round:

Round beginning – 15 candidates remain
32561 votes, 2171 quota
Initial talley:
1386 Jayne Fillon
1332 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Sion Kumitomo
13.192284 Jayne Fillon
7.14582 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Sugar Kyle
67.755198 Jayne Fillon
38.977452 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Endie
22.032003 Jayne Fillon
5.280144 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Manfred Sideous
48.159167 Jayne Fillon
6.35701 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from corebloodbrothers
19.644871 Lorelei Ierendi
16.345732 Jayne Fillon
Transfer from Chance Ravinne
51.863386 Jayne Fillon
17.433071 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Steve Ronuken
65.427794 Jayne Fillon
21.936832 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from corbexx
70.528302 Jayne Fillon
5.694832 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Cagali Cagali
17.615624 Jayne Fillon
2.948069 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Sort Dragon
0.069434 Jayne Fillon
0.05199 Lorelei Ierendi
Transfer from Mike Azariah
0.692592 Jayne Fillon
0.2532 Lorelei Ierendi
Elimination: Lorelei Ierendi with 1457.723293 votes

When I added the numbers next to Lorelei Ierendi, I got 1454.4, close enough. For Jayne Fillon I got 1762.5. The difference is mere 320. I get 4-5000 hits every day for this blog and Lorelei Ierendi was my first recommendation. If only a few of you lift your butts and do those little clicks, we'd have a CSM instead of one more signatory of the Document of Shame.

Now the good part from the CSM 2 election:
Round beginning - 3 candidates remain
21583 votes, 7195 quota Initial talley:
9080 "Sugar Kyle"
6275 "Sion Kumitomo"
6228 "Manfred Sideous"
Elected: "Sugar Kyle"
Transfer from "Sugar Kyle":
457.548458 votes to "Manfred Sideous"
185.178414 votes to "Sion Kumitomo"
Elimination: "Sion Kumitomo" with 6460.178414 votes
Not only Sugar had 1.5x more votes than the favorite lieutenant of the Evil One, but she could toss enough unneeded votes to Manfred Sideous to pull him to the second place. This is priceless.

More priceless thing: while Goons think bombers are poor man's dreads, Mordus Angels know better. They also know that battleship > frigs.

Friday, March 27, 2015

To lasthit AND not to lasthit (and Zkillboard help request)

At first the help request, the real post will be below the line. Skip, if you have no clue about kill API management.

The Zkillboard main page looked like this when I made this post:
Clicking on a kill report leads to its page. The kill is identified with a numerical ID. For example the top kill is identified as I wrote these IDs on the picture. You can see that they aren't random, they are increasing in order in time (older kill has lower number). However they are neither a Zkillboard assigned serial number, as you can see holes (45514167 is after 45514158 and not 45514166). So I can only think that the number is provided by CCP and the holes are because Zkillboard doesn't have all kills just those which are uploaded by players. As this is the front page, many kills are not yet updated and will appear later (or never).

So far, so good. Now comes the problem! 43517157 is a kill in 2015 January 1, 00:00. The previous kill, 43517156 is still at the very end of December 2014. 42763723 is at the very end of November 2014 and the next kill, 42763724 is at the beginning of December. This means that the 2014 December kill reports are all in the 42763724-43517156 range. This contains 753433 positions for kills. Not all slots have kills uploaded, for example 42763726 leads to an error page. The problem is that Dotlan says that in December there were "Highsec ShipKills: 430738, PodKills: 56724, Lowsec ShipKills: 323728, PodKills: 86013, Nullsec ShipKills: 323028, PodKills: 182785". That's 1.4M kills without WH kills. That's more than two times more than the 753K slots on Zkillboard.

One of them must be wrong. How many kills there were in December? Any ideas?

SynCaine wrote his piece protecting the last-hitting mechanic in MOBAs. This means that all rewards from a mob go to the player who lands the killing blow, even if someone else did all the other damage. He and others thinks this is a very good skill-check. The other party claims that it's a dumb gimmick that rewards only reflexes and "muscle memory" instead of decision making.

I won't decide who is right. I played League of Legends only a bit. I hereby suggest a solution that satisfy both sides: auto-lasthit function. If it's turned on with a hotkey, the avatar doesn't attack any player and hits minions only if that hit will likely land a killing blow. Movement is still managed by the player, the auto-lasthit function only attacks minions in range. If you manually attack a player or minion, the function turns off and the avatar keeps attacking that target as usual.

This way those who hate lasthitting can just turn this on and focus only on movement, while those who consider it a skill-mechanic can hit as they wish. If they were right, they will still beat the "autohitter noobs", especially as auto-lasthit only uses autoattack and doesn't lasthit with skills.

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